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Have Nero9, Blu-Ray and DTS plugs but still no Blu-ray support

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 07 Jan 2009 14:55:32 GMT

I've upgraded from Nero8 to Nero9 and added the DTS and Blu-Ray plugins. When I try to do anything with Blu-ray using Nero ShowTime, Vision or Recode - Nero pops up with a box to say 'more product is required'. Clicking buy now just takes you to the product page but doesn't say what is missing. I believe I've bought everything that's needed so what is wrong?

BD+ Analyzed and Hacked?

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 04 Nov 2008 05:07:06 GMT

As people who've been following my blog know, I've been very interested in both the business and technology surrounding Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. One notable intersection between the business and technology has been DRM, with the intriguing BD+ (aka. SPDC) developed by Cryptography Research Inc. and later acquired by Macrovision.

Since June, the researchers (I won't use the pejorative "h" word) have been looking into BD+, and their work has been documented in this forum post. For those who think that this is being done for nefarious purposes, their primary motivation has been to understand the technology and use that to implement Blu-Ray playback under Linux.

In fairness, I should also note that Slysoft "cracked" BD+ some time ago, although the technical details of their attack remained proprietary. Slysoft staff did, however, make some interesting if vague commentary during the early analysis.

The actual success announcement is on page 15. The whole thread is pretty heavy going, but anyone interested in what the folks are CR planned, and how it was defeated, is very interesting. It also raises the question of response: will BD+ support be withdrawn from the software players which clearly facilitated this attack?

Anyway, I look forward to comprehensive Blu-Ray support in a legal, open source player sometime in the near future.

Eight Months of Blu-Ray Supremacy... Or Not...

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 08 Oct 2008 08:59:46 GMT

Has it really been eight months since my last blog entry...?

Apparently so. My last entry was on the sudden departure of Toshiba and it's HD-DVD format, something I discovered had been done without notifying their partners in the format.

A lot has happened in that time.

So firstly, was Blu-Ray's win a phrric victory? Hard to say for sure, but it's certainly looking like Blu-Ray's win might have been a major waste of resources for all players. Online movie sales and rentals, most notably through Apple's iTunes, have grown significantly. Blu-Ray players and media sales remain lackluster.

Fundamentally, the problem is that the Blu-Ray HD sales proposition really has not been made to the average consumer. Upscaled DVD content seems to be sufficient for a significant part of the buying community, and the premium price paid for Blu-Ray players and media clearly isn't deemed sufficient. I took a straw poll at work recently, where I asked the several PS3 owners there who'd actually bought a Blu-Ray disk. Answer (excluding me): none.

Hmmm....

It's also notable that the Blu-Ray shelves I've recently seen, both in the US and in Australia, don't seem to be moving stock.

So what could they do to resolve this? This is something I've been pondering for a while, so let me propose three things which could be done.

Firstly - and it's the easiest step - would be to bring price-parity between the DVD and Blu-Ray releases. Reproduction costs are largely comparable on a per-unit basis anyway, and the increased pre-production and mastering charges aren't significant in high volumes.

Secondly, the price of Blu-Rayt Live! players need to drop below US$200. This is not an impossible goal. Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs) like Broadcom's BCM7440 bring the BoM costs of a player below the US$100 mark. Although selling a player at retail $200 (ie. $150 wholesale) with a BoM cost of $100 is tight, it is quite achievable. Initial profits might be low, or even zero, but this is a market building exercise.

Finally, the studios have to convince everyone that HD is important. They also have to sell the difference between HD from Blu-Ray and the appallingly bad so-called HD ATSC and DVB-T broadcasts that so rightly underwhelm many viewers. The studios need to educate people to recognize the artifacts that upscaling 480i and 576i DVD footage to 1080p introduces. Once people can recognize it, it's a very small step to becoming sensitive to it, and then it's pretty much guaranteed to annoy.

So, there you have it.

Para o offline e rápido também

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 11 Jul 2008 17:32:05 GMT

Que tal um cedezinho básico com 100 mil músicas em mp3? Para mim soa como pesadelo navegar nisso aí, mas é para onde apontam pesquisas da Pioneer. A firma anunciou ter colocado 16 camadas de gravação funcionando em um disquinho baseado nos discos Blu-ray. Hoje os B-r discs não passam de 2 camadas - e ainda assim são um colosso com seus 50 Gbytes de capacidade.

Claro que o anúncio da Pioneer tem apenas objetivo de demonstrar poder tecnológico. É um produto de laboratório que vai ficar por lá ainda durante muuuito tempo. Mas é também um horizonte da tecnologia para daqui a uns anos: 400 Gbytes em um só disquinho. Haja conteúdo.

Guerra Blu-ray x HD DVD: você ganhou (Parte 3 - Final)

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 23 May 2008 16:00:28 GMT

Valeria a pena escolher o mais econômico ou o outro, que levava a tecnologia a um patamar que talvez até impedisse a produção em massa? De verdade, não havia um meio de escolher o melhor formato.

Sabíamos que os usuários não queriam se preocupar com detalhes e nossa missão era oferecer uma solução global desde o princípio, não importando que formato o usuário estivesse utilizando e o que ele quisesse fazer. Tinha de ser os dois, mesmo sabendo que um ganharia do outro na aceitação do consumidor.

Os estúdios de cinema se dividiram na hora de apoiar um ou outro. Alguns apostaram no Blu-ray e outros no HD DVD. Mas poucos deram apoio a ambos. As vendas do HD DVD começaram firmes e fortes, mas após o aparecimento do PS3 as vendas dos discos começaram a favorecer o Blu-ray.

O cenário tampouco se desequilibrou quando a Paramount e a Dream Works decidiram adotar com exclusividade o HD DVD. Na verdade, tanto o HD DVD quanto o Blu-ray começaram devagar, com um bocado de gente dizendo que a culpa era da confusão na cabeça do consumidor em relação a qual escolher.

Só em janeiro de 2008 um movimento concreto foi sentido no mercado. Horas antes da abertura do Consumer Electronics Show em Las Vegas, a Warner Brothers anunciou que estava tirando seu apoio ao HD DVD. Assim, a maioria dos filmes ficaria disponível apenas em Blu-ray. Em uma reação em cadeia, varejistas e pequenos estúdios começaram a dizer que também desmontariam suas operações com o HD DVD.

Corajosamente estavam admitindo que seus investimentos tinham ido água abaixo. Os riscos eram altos, como sugerem recentes relatórios de analistas financeiros.

Mais de um ano de competição acirrada entre os formatos custou muito dinheiro, mas também trouxe benefícios para o consumidor. Os preços caíram, problemas de compatibilidade foram resolvidos e a qualidade de hardware, softwares e filmes está muito melhor hoje do que estaria sem a guerra dos formatos.

Guerra Blu-ray x HD DVD: você ganhou (Parte 2)

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 20 May 2008 12:58:11 GMT

Desde o início ficou bem claro a todo mundo que o formato de nova geração tinha que oferecer muito de tudo. Ou seja, coisas como imagem seis vezes mais nítida que de um DVD, som com até 8 canais de qualidade profissional, interatividade a toda prova e jogos capazes de levar o entretenimento digital a um novo patamar.

Outro passo seria a criação de uma formato que pudesse ser usado em PCs para armazenar grandes quantidades de dados em discos baratos e confiáveis. Estava tudo certo. O problema é que brigas tecnológicas e, claro, por poder, levaram à criação de dois formatos divergentes com um só objetivo – ganhar o lugar do DVD.

O Blu-ray, tendo à frente a Sony, reinventou completamente o disco óptico, conseguindo armazenar até 50GB em uma só mídia. Isso levou o Blu-ray a ter seis vezes mais capacidade de armazenamento que um DVD, alavancando de forma incrível a qualidade dos filmes gravados mas exigindo, em contrapartida, uma nova tecnologia de fabricação.

Eles tiveram também de trabalhar duro para desenvolver gravadores para que os discos fossem usados em gravação de dados em computadores. Em relação a filmes, tiveram de incluir a proteção de cópia adicional BD+ e um sistema de código regional exigido pelos estúdios cinematográficos. A tecnologia Java, da Sun, usada diariamente por milhões de pessoas na web e em celulares, foi escolhida como a linguagem básica dos discos com menus interativos, jogos e tudo o mais.

Certo, e do outro lado estava a Toshiba promovendo os HD DVDs. Embora com capacidade de armazenamento inferior, de 30 Gbytes, seus discos podiam ser produzidos em equipamentos de fabricação de DVD atualizados. Quer dizer, o formato seria mais barato e chegaria ao mercado mais cedo. O conteúdo interativo também estava incluído e se baseava em tecnologia Microsoft, que além de tudo daria apoio ativo aos estúdios cinematográficos.

Com isso, a turma do HD DVD podia lançar seus players antes, ter preços bem melhores e colocar na praça conteúdos interativos não só funcionais como ainda integráveis com a internet. A gravação de discos seria então uma prioridade menor que poderia ser adicionada mais tarde, como aconteceu com o DVD.

É aí que surge a pergunta: qual escolher?

LEIA A CONTINUAÇÃO AMANHÃ

Guerra Blu-ray x HD DVD: você ganhou (Parte 1)

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 19 May 2008 18:59:24 GMT

Verdade: quem ganhou a guerra dos formatos foi o consumidor. É o que vamos mostrar nessa série de artigos sobre a briga entre Blu-ray e HD DVD. Novos posts a respeito no ar amanhã e depois. Mande seus comentários! E vamos lá:

Em uma súbita explosão de interesse, o Blu-ray apareceu em todos os noticiários no início deste ano e o HD DVD desapareceu. O que realmente aconteceu e por que os consumidores se tornaram os verdadeiros ganhadores dessa guerra tecnológica?

Há apenas alguns meses os experts no assunto estavam absolutamente certos: a guerra de formatos entre os discos Blu-ray e HD DVD levaria anos para chegar a algum termo. Pudera: os dois formatos têm boas qualidades a seu favor. O Blu-ray podia ser encontrado em todo PlayStation 3 que a Sony colocou no mercado e em várias outras marcas de produtos eletrônicos de peso que lançaram seus players nesse formato.

Já o HD DVD estava disponível para o Xbox 360 e a Toshiba tinha players sendo vendidos a preços de barganha. O Blu-ray, por outro lado, somava características como a capacidade de armazenamento extragrande e a proteção anti-cópia fortificada que os estúdios hollywoodianos queriam. No outro front, o HD DVD apresentava custo de produção mais baixo e tinha uma maneira mais simples de criar características interativas, transformando-o no favorito dos estúdios independentes de cinema – e no predileto de alguns dos grandes também.

Então, como tudo acabou tão de repente?

Poucos anos atrás nada disso existia. Os dois lados lutavam para finalizar seus formatos (que por sinal eram parecidos em detalhes técnicos, de áudio e vídeo) e pensavam em novas estratégias para colocar funcionalidades interativas em discos com gravações de filmes e coisas assim.

Criar um padrão pode ser algo bem complicado já que há uma enormidade de aspectos a considerar. Quando o DVD conquistou as salas de estar de todo o mundo, ele tinha vantagens claras sobre o videocassete, a exemplo da padronização do formato, e foi fácil tomar o lugar das fitas. E os preços caíram vertiginosamente na medida em que a demanda se aquecia. Dessa vez, porém, as coisas ficaram um tanto mais complicadas.

LEIA A CONTINUAÇÃO AMANHÃ

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 07 May 2008 16:54:52 GMT

In January, as Toshiba's plans for HD DVD finally entered a death spiral, I pointed out that Blu-ray was still far from ready to win the hearts and minds of consumers for a number of reasons. Today I'll look at who, if anyone, actually won the so-called format war.

Sony

The obvious answer here is Sony. After all, they have the most to gain from Blu-ray's success. The only problem is that Blu-ray has yet to be a success by any commercial standard. So far Sony has spent billions to develop and market the technology, including hundreds of millions paid to movie studios to secure their backing and put the final nail in HD DVD's coffin. Blu-ray is also a key component of Sony's PS3 game console and AVCHD camcorders. For those of you not familiar with AVCHD it's the consumer counterpart to the BD-MV format used for commercial Blu-ray production.

With all this money spent and little in the way of return it's hard to find any real gains for Sony. While PS3 sales continue to rise, there's no clear indication that Blu-ray has played a major role in the console's success. The PS3 remains the most technologically advanced Blu-ray player on the market, but there are no accurate figures on the number of buyers who even care about Blu-ray. Depending on how you interpret the recent decline in non-PS3 Blu-ray players it may be a sign that the PS3 is benefitting from being the only player with support for BD-Live. Of course the surge in standard definition DVD players with up-converting capability would appear to be a sign that consumers still don't care.

Certainly Sony can't be remotely close to breaking even on Blu-ray so no winner here.

Toshiba

There's an argument to be made that Toshiba is better off after cutting their losses and abandoning HD DVD, but they never recouped the cost of development and promotion, not to mention the money they, like Sony, spent enticing studios to their side. In addition their abandonment of the technology, apparently with no word to their studio partners in the venture has no doubt left a bad taste in the mouths of many in Hollywood.

Consumers

There's no doubt in my mind that a single high definition DVD format is better for consumers than two, although with Blu-ray sales still low enough to be nearly a statistical anomoly in the home video market there's no evidence that the average person has been convinced Blu-ray is the future. The collective yawn from the general public seems deafening.

Perhaps the biggest problem for consumers is the continued disinterest among player manufacturers to sell them anything. Once they secured the backing of all the major studios many analysts expected Blu-ray supporters like Sony to switch their focus to wooing consumers. To date that hasn't happened. If anything the lack of price cuts have served to further alienate potential customers who by and large weren't particularly interested in either Blu-ray or HD DVD to begin with. Meanwhile HDTVs remain expensive enough to ensure a large percentage of those (like me) with old fashioned analog (and standard definition) TVs won't be participating in the HDTV revolution any time soon.

For people who want to take advantage of the improved audio quality available on Blu-ray titles the situation may be even worse. If you have an older home theater receiver with only S/PDIF connections for surround sound you'll have to buy a new receiver to take advantage of the lossless surround sound used on Blu-ray discs, which requires either six channel analog inputs or HDMI.

Depending on which components you need to buy, the cost (in the U.S.) starts at about $400, and could easily reach over $1000 for even a very basic configuration. No winner here either.

Electronics Retailers

As with consumers, retailers benefit from a single HD disc format, and many have thrown their support behind Blu-ray, at least publicly. As DVD sales, which had risen consistently for years, remain flat Blu-ray shows no sign of being the next big thing. Meanwhile the shelf space and inventory costs associated with the technology make it difficult to see any kind of success to date, or in the forseeable future. At the same time customer confusion and disinterest continues to fuel standar DVD player sales, particularly for up-converting models.

Panasonic

Arguably the dark horse in the race is Panasonic. Sharing the top spot among Blu-ray patent holders with Sony, they would benefit greatly if Blu-ray becomes the next major home video format. Although high player prices have relegated Panasonic to an also-ran when it comes to sales, with Sony taking the lead in promoting the format they've also managed to keep a low enough profile to be relatively untouched by the PR battles which have so far dominated Blu-ray's short history. If the format succeeds Panasonic may be in the best financial position in the short term, but until that happens the best they can hope for is to come out looking better than Sony, making them winners in the same way that having nicer weather than the North Pole makes Antarctica warm.

But wait, there's more....

I could go on and on about online video and the nearly invisible HD VMR format that uses cheaper red laser technology of DVD to reduce production costs for HD discs. Either or both of these could have a significant impact on the success or failure of Blu-ray, but to date both have had negligible impact on sales compared to the missteps of the format's own backers. Other factors, like a U.S. economy that's shaky and unpredictable at best, may also play a significant role in the coming months.

If Blu-ray's future doesn't look significantly brighter by the beginning of next year the debate may be settled once and for all by forces outside the consumer marketplace. Maybe the question we should really be asking is at what point do shareholders and corporate board members see the investment in Blu-ray as equivalent to piling up their money and burning it?

HD Disk Wars: the Post-CES Battlefield

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 22 Jan 2008 03:08:47 GMT

My blog has been closely following the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray " war" for a few months now (see my previous posts here, here, here, here, here, and here). This is a battle being played out between industry giants being doors which are closed to both consumers and the press. However, as many people here are playing both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD media on their PCs, I thought it timely to report on some of the recent industry developments.

To begin with, let's look at the aftermath of CES. The last-minute cancellation of the HD-DVD association's press conference at CES was a surprising and unexpected development. This blog entry at Gizmodo makes interesting reading, as it purports to explain the politics behind that cancellation:

http://gizmodo.com/346783/the-truth-about-the-format-war-and-hd-dvds-demise

Just remember that this is mostly based on unsubstantiated rumor, and should be treated as such. At the same time, it should also be remembered that the official press releases from industry players have regularly been disingenuous, with Viacom's HD-DVD announcement being the most egregious example. So far.

I also previously wrote about lackluster HD-DVD player sales in Australia, and reported that Toshiba was planning to drop their ridiculously high player prices after Christmas.

That price reduction has occurred, although the discount comes via a $200 redemption, pushing the final price of the low-end 720p/1080i-only HD-E1 down to AUD$349 (about USD$280). I was able to bargain mine down to AUD$300 (after redemption). Interestingly, discount by redemption is not common in the consumer electronic marketplace in Australia, and this feels like a program being pushed out of the US headquarters.

After the purchase had gone through, the salesperson confided that HD-DVD player sales over Christmas had been very low, and that the redemption deal had not significantly improved that.

In Blu-Ray news, public understanding of Blu-Ray "profiles" has picked up (originally noted in my blog back in November). This is likely to be a big problem for the Blu-Ray camp, as disks are released with features which older players do not fully support. It is also a weakness that HD-DVD consortium never properly exploited, being too obsessed with meaningless sloganeering like "the look and sound of perfect".

There are basically three Blu-Ray profiles at the present time:

1.0 - (aka. "BD-Video" or "Grace Period Profile") the base profile supported by all current players. The only local storage capability which is mandated is 64K of "persistent" local store (flash or battery-backed-up SRAM). Further local storage and virtual file system support is optional.

1.1 - (aka. "Bonus View" or "Final Standard Profile") a secondary audio and video decoder is required, to support Picture-in-Picture. 256MB of local storage supporting the virtual file system becomes a requirement. Only a subset of current players support 1.1, most notably the PS3 running v2.1 firmware or later. The 64K persistent storage requirement remains unchanged.

2.0 - (aka. "BD-Live") the local storage requirement rises to 1GB, and an Internet connection is now required.

As an aside, for those who think a mandatory Internet connection is always a good idea, I'd caution them to think about the issue more deeply.

An Internet connection may facilitate consumer-friendly features, but it also gives Hollywood the power to "update" your player at their whim. You know: those same Hollywood types who've been paying each other millions of dollars in "promotional considerations" and pushing obnoxious DRM schemes like BD+. Do you like the idea of them being forced to "update" your firmware, with the penalty of revoking your device if you don't comply? An Internet connection is the key enabling technology for such an unpleasant scheme.

For more detail on this issue, see the third-from-bottom comment in my blog entry here.

It also should be noted that an "Internet connection" and "ethernet" are not the same thing. I would anticipate most CE devices favoring 802.11g (or better), which is significantly more convenient to deploy for most households. The "Bill of Materials" cost required to add wireless LAN functionality is now in the single digits, and dropping yearly. One industry source claims that by 2010 the cost will be USD$1.

Anyway, it's being widely reported that the only current player which has the hardware to support the 2.0 profile is the Playstation 3. ArsTechnica has an excellent overview:

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080118-new-nlu-ray-2-0-spec-makes-ps3-the-most-future-proof-player.html

Note: ArsTechnica implies that 2.0 profile requires two secondary decoders. I believe this is incorrect, and that they intended to state that two decoders are required, not three as their inclusion of the word "secondary" implies (ie. primary + two secondaries).

Frankly, having purchased a PS3 over Christmas, I think that playing Blu-Ray disks and contributing to Folding@Home is all the device is good for. I've never such an uninteresting line-up of games for any previous console.

I'd also expressed surprise that so few SoC's (Systems-On-a-Chip) had appeared to support HD-DVD and/or Blu-Ray, as I'd previously only found a single available chip. Now it seems that Sigma Designs also has a SoC solution for Blu-Ray: the SMP8630. Like the competing Broadcom BCM7440 SoC, the primary CPU seems to be based on the MIPS architecture.

The MIPS architecture powers between 70% and 76% of shipped DVD recorders and TV set-top boxes, and it looks like this trend is continuing in Blu-Ray players too. DVD player SoCs weren't so homogenous, being based on a grab-bag of instruction set architectures from Zoran's x86-like Vaddis ISA to ARM in MediaTek and MIPS-X (an old MIPS variant) for ESS. Only SunPlus used MIPS, and then very quietly.

Both the BCM7440 and the SMP8630 support BD profile 2.0, with dual-decoders and network-supporting I/O in both cases. Neither Broadcom nor Sigma Designs were big players in the general DVD player SoC marketplace, although SD did hold a significant share of the very high-end player SoC market.

Finally, it's hard to resist commenting on the motives of the industry players here. One of the mortifying aspects of this war has been the near total exclusion of consumer considerations, which are subsumed by the commercial machinations and undisclosed payments between industry alliances and both CE and content producers. Indeed, one has to wonder whether some of these deals cross the ill-defined boundaries of anti-trust legislation.

It seems to me that as consumers, we are the least important part of this industry war. To me, that does not sound like the working of a functional marketplace.

23rd January 2008 Update:

Engadget has US HD-DVD and Blu-Ray player sales data from the second week of January, following the Warner decision to go Blu-Ray:

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/22/blu-ray-players-grab-93-percent-of-market-after-warner-went-blu/

HD-DVD's 48.83% of sales in week 1 fell to 7.47% of sales in week 2.

Ouch.

27th January 2008 Update:

The NPD group, from which the reported sales figures originated, is cautioning that there were a number of significant factors in these statistics which have gone unreported:

http://www.dailygame.net/news/archives/007137.php

My personal feeling is one I've made before: perceptions governs all. The perception that Blu-Ray has won is so widely spread, that I doubt the HD-DVD camp can turn it around.

And it doesn't help that Toshiba's low-end "affordable" player is so very awful.

30th January 2008 Update:

Industry-analyst Gartner believes that the format war will end in 2008, with a Blu-Ray victory. It concludes that Toshiba's rebates and price cuts may prolong this process, but they won't be effective. Here's ArsTechnica's report on this announcement:

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080129-consumers-analysts-retailers-give-hd-dvd-the-cold-shoulder.html

Of course, the trials aren't over for Blu-Ray at this point, because there's still a formidable and well-entrenched opponent to beat: DVD.

Leaving aside the fact that significant parts of the population don't have HD-capable screens, the reality is that most people aren't yet sold on the benefits of native 1080p vs. 480i/576i upscaled to 1080p. In my observation, few people spot the difference without prompting.

This will be Blu-Ray's next hurdle: killing what is probably CE's most successful format ever.

5th February 2008 Update:

The tsunami of "Blu-Ray will win" news on the net is getting a little dull, especially as most seem to think the only market which exists is the US one. Here's a report out of Europe with some numbers and analysis:

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/02/04/blu_ray_hd_dvd_europe/

Interesting stuff.

Is Viacom Having Second Thoughts About HD-DVD?

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 08 Jan 2008 00:23:33 GMT

Some rumors floating around the web suggest that Paramount and Dreamworks (Viacom) might have been having second thoughts about their commitment to HD-DVD, even before Warner's recent announcement that they were ending dual-format support and going Blu-Ray entirely.

Many people will remember that Viacom was originally a dual format studio, supporting both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. On August 20th last year, Viacom announced that it was dropping Blu-Ray support and releasing exclusively on HD-DVD. Although Viacom's press release claimed that this was due to the company's conclusion that HD-DVD was the best format for consumers, it later emerged that Toshiba (and maybe Microsoft) had made a significant "promotional consideration" payment to secure this decision. The amount has never been officially disclosed. The NYT claimed USD$150M covering both Paramount and Dreamworks, although other sources have suggested numbers between USD$50M and USD$250M.

Note that Microsoft has always denied any involvement in the deal between Toshiba and Viacom. Microsoft's motives in the HD market have also been questioned.

Fox was also rumored to have been made a similar offer, but declined.

It is also understood that the agreement between Toshiba and Viacom runs only 18 months, suggesting that it ends in early 2009. And there’s the problem for Viacom: that’s a very long time to be locked out of the market if it’s been sold a dud. Despite being priced higher, Blu-Ray players are now outselling HD-DVD players in the US, and they’ve always outsold them internationally. Worse, there are numerous US-based reports of high return rates on HD-DVD players post-Christmas. Blu-Ray titles in the US are outselling HD-DVD 2:1, with international ratios even higher netween 3:1 and 4:1 in ANZ and Europe, topping out at 9:1 in Japan.

This is a nightmare scenario for Viacom: if HD-DVD dies the quick death which is being predicted, it could be locked out of the bulk of the HD disk market until February 2009. Even if Viacom believes that HD-DVD still has a chance, due diligence to their shareholders would demand that they seriously contingency plan it's failure anyway. I would expect that this planning is happening at a very high level indeed, with the daily attention of Viacom's CEO.

So rumors that they’re thinking about possible escape clauses in the agreement should not surprise anyone.

But one also has to wonder at the HD-DVD consortium’s canceled press conferences at CES. The defection of Warner was hardly unexpected, the timing was utterly predictable, so surely they’d have a contingency plan to deal with Warner’s move? The fact that they didn’t, and canceled the conferences, does lead me to wonder if there’s more bad news yet to come. Could an announcement by Viacom be this bad news?

Let’s wait and see.

Disclaimer: in case anyone suggests that I favor one side or another, I wish to state my position here. I want one format to win, as I totally agree with Warner's analysis, and believe that having two formats is destroying the market. I have already purchased playback equipment for both formats. I do not believe that either format carries an overwhelming advantage over the other, so I don't favor Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. I am just satisfied that this unnecessary and wasteful format war shows signs of drawing to a close, and truly hope that all companies involved learn a lesson for future developments.

UPDATE - Tuesday 8th January

The Financial Times is now reporting on this speculation, and notes that sources claim Paramount's (but maybe not Dreamwork's) contract with Toshiba includes an escape clause which allows them to escape the HD-DVD-only deal. One wonders if this will require them to return to being a dual-format studio (likely), or whether it will allow them to drop HD-DVD entirely (unlikely).

They also note that Universal, the other remaining HD-DVD supporting studio, has been very quiet since Warner's announcement. If Paramount folds, I expect Universal to do the same within a month.

The FT compares the situation to VHS vs. Betamax, but in my opinion, this is a bogus comparison. In the tape era, studios released on both formats, even when it became clear that Betamax was dying. There was no "pick your format pick your studio" nonsense, which is what has been so damaging in the HD format wars.

Ironically, as I write this, I am resting my feet on my very first VCR: a top-loading Toshiba V-8700 Betamax recorder. Built like a tank, it's still working after twenty five years, unlike every single recorder I've owned since.

UPDATE - Wednesday 9th January

Universal rumors start, including a claim that they'll be jumping the sinking HD-DVD ship, but contractual limitations mean this won't happen until February:

http://formatwarcentral.com/index.php/2008/01/09/the-digital-bits-paramount-and-universal-are-going-blu/

Just bear in mind that these are all rumors right now. They're credible given the circumstances, but that doesn't make them confirmed.

Nero with ATI 2600 XT InfoTool upgrade needed blu-ray playback broken in showtime

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 07 Jan 2008 02:54:50 GMT

I must confess I feel I have been lied to by the company. I have always loved nero and I hated being forced to use powerdvd.

The one good thing about powerdvd is that it worked when I played blu-ray.

I have a:

amd 4600 cpu

bwu-100a blu-ray drive

abit an-m2hd motherboard

2gb ram

hd 2600 xt video card

I met all the requirements for the software as outlined in the "System requirements." I downloaded the trial version but could not try the blu-ray so I blew 100 dollars to software that doesn't work.

I attempt to play a blu-ray disc ie harry potter and it says something about unexpected, I hit ok and Nothing happens.

So then I run this infotool and it says "upgrade required" for my hd 2600 xt. So then I click the help thing on infotool and it takes me to system requirements and tells me the card I have will work with the software. And I am not going to upgrade a card that is supposed to work, plays on powerdvd and is pretty new.

I would be extremely cautious buying this product if you have an ATI video card. Even though the requirements say you can use it, you might be told an upgrade is required then taken to a page where you find your video card.

Also I was discouraged when I looked for help, the phone number to call charges over a dollar a minute and wants you to put your credit card in on the phone.

I cant help but feel a little betrayed, Nero was my favorite program, and I was waiting for them to put in blu-ray playback.

Warner Goes Blu-Ray Only; HD-DVD on Life Support?

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 05 Jan 2008 08:16:21 GMT

Warner Bros has confirmed that as of May 2008, they will be releasing on Blu-Ray only, and abandoning HD-DVD. Warner had already announced that they were thinking of ending their dual-release strategy (see my blog post here), so this is expected news.

Here is the Warner Bros press release:

In response to consumer demand, Warner Bros. Entertainment will release its high-definition DVD titles exclusively in the Blu-ray disc format beginning later this year, it was announced today by Barry Meyer, Chairman & CEO, Warner Bros. and Kevin Tsujihara, President, Warner Bros. Home Entertainment Group.

"Warner Bros.' move to exclusively release in the Blu-ray disc format is a strategic decision focused on the long term and the most direct way to give consumers what they want," said Meyer. "The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger. We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers."

Warner Home Video will continue to release its titles in standard DVD format and Blu-ray. After a short window following their standard DVD and Blu-ray releases, all new titles will continue to be released in HD DVD until the end of May 2008.

"Warner Bros. has produced in both high-definition formats in an effort to provide consumer choice, foster mainstream adoption and drive down hardware prices," said Jeff Bewkes, President and Chief Executive Officer, Time Warner Inc., the parent company of Warner Bros. Entertainment. "Today's decision by Warner Bros. to distribute in a single format comes at the right time and is the best decision both for consumers and Time Warner."

"A two-format landscape has led to consumer confusion and indifference toward high definition, which has kept the technology from reaching mass adoption and becoming the important revenue stream that it can be for the industry," said Tsujihara. "Consumers have clearly chosen Blu-ray, and we believe that recognizing this preference is the right step in making this great home entertainment experience accessible to the widest possible audience. Warner Bros. has worked very closely with the Toshiba Corporation in promoting high definition media and we have enormous respect for their efforts. We look forward to working with them on other projects in the future."

Rumors (see link [1] below) claim that a significant payment (aka. a "promotional consideration") was offered to Warner by the HD-DVD camp, but was apparently rejected.

So what does this mean for HD-DVD? HD-DVD still has Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks, but as I noted previously, the "defection" of Paramount and Dreamworks to HD-only was heavily subsidised by the HD-DVD camp. But that business agreement agreement runs only 18 months, and what happens then is anyone's guess. Sony has deep pockets too.

In my opinion, the critical issue right now is perception. High Definition disk adoption has been slow, primarily because people were concerned about making the wrong purchase choice in a format war. But if one format can build a market perception that they're winning, it could be game over. I think Blu-Ray is very close to being able to do that.

On hearing the news of Warner's decision, the HD-DVD camp cancelled their press conference at CES. Toshiba is reportedly also quite upset at the decision, and has claimed that Warner is violating as-yet unnamed contracts in making this decision.

More news as it becomes available.

Link [1]: due to the link length limitation in My.Nero, I cannot link directly to the page containing this info. Please cut the link below from the blog, and paste it into the address bar of your browser:

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/boost-for-blu-ray-warner-bros-will-release-high-def-titles-exclusively-in-that-format/

Christmas HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray Industry News

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 13 Dec 2007 23:38:37 GMT

ArsTechnica covers the New York Times' report that Warner Bros - until now one of the rare studios which release their titles on both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD - will be "going exclusive" on whichever format sells best over the Christmas period. One presumes that this is in the US market alone, as it's a no-contest internationally.

Based on current sales figures, this almost certainly means WB will go Blu-Ray, which currently leads US disk (but not player) sales by a significant margin. Increased HD-DVD player sales are unlikely to change this.

Interestingly, the NYT article also reminds us that the Dreamworks/Paramount's HD-DVD exclusivity deal lasts only 18 months, so unless Toshiba/Microsoft finds another big bucket of cash to match the $150M already paid, all bets could be off. Sony has deep pockets too, and with Paramount on-board as a Blu-Ray exclusive studio, it would be game-over for HD-DVD.

Moves are afoot in the player area too. Amazon US is currently selling Samsung's BP-P1400 player for $279, down from it's MSRP of $499.

The important question to ask is whether this is a loss leader designed to grab headlines and distort monthly sales figures, like the "$99" Toshiba HD-A2 (real MSRP $299). Will Samsung will be able to maintain these discounts indefinitely and still turn a profit?

The $99 sale of the HD-A2 was unquestionably below cost. The BD-P1400 is based on the Broadcom BCM-7411, although as a detailed BoM hasn't yet hit the 'net, it's hard to judge just how tight profits would be. Interestingly, this player is not based on the highly integrated BCM-7440 ASIC, which I would have expected.

Note also that the BD-P1400 does support 1080p via HDMI, whereas the HD-A2 could only manage 1080i. An interesting thread which documents Blu-Ray player capabilities can be found here. I've not located a similar comparison table for HD-DVD players.

HD-DVD industry folks: a little more real info, and a little less "The Look and Sound of Perfect" please? I don't favor either side, but the HD-DVD camp so regularly sets off my BS detector that it's really hard to stay impartial.

And while on the subject of player tech: is it just me, or does anyone else find it interesting that none of the top tier DVD ASIC vendors (Zoran, SunPlus, and MediaTek) have Blu-Ray or HD-DVD ASICs for sale?

MediaTek makes a couple of vague references to Blu-Ray support, but those aren't associated with a currently selling product, although they are members of the Blu-Ray association. Zoran is too, but doesn't even mention Blu-Ray on their website. Neither has a membership of HD-DVD.

Sunplus is a total outsider, although as the company's focus is exclusively on low-end mass-market razor-thin-profit-margin products, maybe that one is understandable. Sunplus is the kind of company I'd expect to enter the market when manufacturer profit margins per sale drop to less than $5 per unit, when their manufacturing capabilities and aggressive cost management give them a competitive advantage.

It just seems very strange. The ASICs from these companies, most especially Zoran with it's VADDIS series of DVD ASICs, were instrumental in driving the cost of DVD players down. It is therefore surprising that they seem to be missing in action right now.

HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray: The Australian Perspective

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 06 Dec 2007 22:03:16 GMT

I was at a major retailer yesterday, and saw a large pile of Toshiba HD-DVD players for sale. HD-DVD is the "also ran" format in Australia by a wide margin, with the XBOX360 add-on drive holding the majority of the HD-DVD player market.

This is the first time I'd ever seen HD-DVD players available "on the floor" from a major retailer. Previously, if I'd ask about HD-DVD, they'd shuffle and say they could get a player in, but didn't carry them, and that I really should consider Blu-Ray instead. Everyone carries Blu-Ray.

The Toshiba HD-A2 (list price US$299) is not available here, but its equivalent in Europe and ANZ is the Toshiba HD-E2. This is retailing at around AUD$550, which is about US$480. Like the A2, the E2 is limited to 1080i. Externally it looks like the same unit, so I'm guessing it is probably mostly identical internally too.

BTW, before anyone calls the HD-A2 the "$99" player, it's not. The BOM (Bill of Materials) cost for the A2 would be close to $99, without including distribution or marketing or retailer profit. The $99 price was a "loss leader" sale, designed to get headlines. It is not a sustainable price, and while interesting for political reasons - especially the question of who subsidized the promotion (I'm looking at you Microsoft) - it doesn't represent a true market entry.

Back to the store: the sales manager had some interesting news. He said that the Toshiba rep had told him that post-Christmas prices would drop significantly, putting the HD-E2 in the AUD$299-$349 range. This makes it still more expensive than the HD-A2, but the difference is less egregious.

So, Toshiba's strategy: price gouge until after Christmas, then sell them at closer to the price the rest of the world enjoys.

My strong feeling is that the "tipping point" price for the low-end player is AUD$250. Right now, the format war makes either format a risky purchase. But most middle- to high-income earners would consider AUD$250 to be low enough to accept the risk. Below AUD$199 and it's a killer. The advent of the sub-$200 player around 2000 is when DVD's really look off in Australia, so my $250 is really just that, scaled for 7 years of inflation.

In Blu-Ray news, players are still start at around the AUD$650 mark, comparable to the price of a PS3. Blu-Ray titles are still moving off the shelves significantly faster than HD-DVD's (3:1 is what I was told by one retailer), but it's also notable that many stores are discounting both formats right now. JB, for example, has a "buy two get the third free" offer right now, which could suggest that their HD disk sales for both formats are not meeting expectations.

Perhaps this is also due to the price premium of around 33% for a HD titles, with a new-release DVD averaging AUD$25 to AUD$30, and the equivalent HD-DVD or Blu-Ray in the AUD$40-AUD$45 price range?

Another possibility is that they're expecting a post-Christmas rush of new titles, and need to clear the shelves of the first batch, which were largely back catalog reissues. This is supported by a rumor I heard, which suggested that Sony was holding back a lot of releases with the aim of tidal-waving HD-DVD in the new year (mostly on the back of Christmas PS3 sales). If true, that's a risky strategy.

Finally, a thought on the format wars. I was listening to a commentator on TV the other day, bemoaning the format wars. He had very little interesting to say, but it did remind me of an old conundrum.

One thing which is always forgotten is that DVD was, mostly, a good format. I could argue about the hideous frame rate conversion hacks (inverse telecine for NTSC and 24 to 25 upspeeding for PAL), and PuOPs, but otherwise the DVD design was pretty damn good.

But saying just one format is better for consumers assumes that the one format was good. I'd call that an unreasonable assumption, especially where Hollywood studios are involved.

So that's the conundrum, and definitely something worth thinking about. Which is worse, a bad standard, or no standard at all?

Michael Bay's Comments About Microsoft's HD Disk Strategy

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 05 Dec 2007 20:23:56 GMT

The allegation that Microsoft is actively trying to have both HD disk formats fail - despite their involvement in HD-DVD - is one which has been floating around for a while now. Usually it's only whispered. Michael Bay's recent comments are therefore very interesting:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Given that Microsoft doesn't yet have a viable digital download service, it would be amusing if they succeeded in killing both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, and delivered the business to Apple and iTunes. But it wouldn't be amusing for too long, as this would be a disastrous situation for consumers.

Blu-Ray Victory! (Sorta)

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 30 Nov 2007 00:21:11 GMT

Just got "Apocalypto" from Netflix. Popped it in the media center and fired up Showtime. And I'll be darned, it played. This is a giant relief as it told me that my setup wasn't completely borked. So I'm happier about the situation than I have been yet. Let me list:

The Good News:

1. It played!

2. It passed Dolby Digital to my receiver. It also passed Uncompressed PCM to my receiver as Dolby Digital. I guess the is the best solution since my receiver probably doesn't know what to do with 5.1 PCM coming thru the S/PDIF connection.

The Bad News:

1. Try as I might, I couldn't get the hardware acceleration to work. This rendered the movie unwatchable on my minimum requirement system.

2. I discovered that the media center remote doesn't work with Showtime. This is a dissapointment because it works with WinDVD and greatly enhances the "Wife Accpetance Factor."

3. "Die Hard" still won't play. "Die Hard" is a much newer release than "Apocalypto" so I assume the problem is the new BDVM+ copy protection. I wish I hadn't sent back "Casino Royale" because it would have been nice to test whether it worked on the Vista setup.

I'm not sure if there is anything I can do to improve the situation at this point. I'm sure Nero will fix the BDVM+ protection problem in the not-too-distant future. As for my video card, assuming there is no way for me to enable the hardware acceleration that I was unable to discover thru the menus, I just have to wait for Nero to include support for it. I think it would be great if Nero also included media center remote support in the future, as that is a practial neccesity for the ten-foot experience. Haven't tried "Apocalypto" on the old XP-MCE setup yet, so I don't know if that situation is any better.

Thanks to everyone for all the help. If anyone has suggestion about my problems that remain, they will be greatly appreciated.

PS. In case anyone is interest, WinDVD 8 LE will pass Uncompressed PCM over the S/PDIF connection. Which is very nice. But still not the Dolby Digital.

Blu-Ray, Nero 8, and ATI HD 2600 XT

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 29 Nov 2007 18:00:35 GMT

In my previous blog entry, I was trying to get Blu-Ray working with Showtime 4 and Windows XP-MCE 2005. As there were many factors and variables with this installation I decided to see if I could get Blu-Ray playback with a fresh install of Vista and Nero 8 to help isolate the cause.

The installation was on the identical machine:

AMD X2 +3800 CPU

1 GB RAM

PIONEER Blu-Ray/DVD drive BCD-202

ATI HD 2600 XT Graphics Card

The software only included new Vista Ultimate installation and latest version of Nero 8 software. Attempting to play a Blu-Ray disc ("Die Hard") resulted in this sceen

The error message says that my player is not equipped with the latest firmware and will not give the optimal experience. It has a contiune button. However clicking the continue button did nothing. Notice that the warning message comes from the Disc not Nero because it mentions the Fox Blu-Ray website. I guess the software is reporting a non-compliant computer.

After installing WinDVD 8 LE the movie played as expected.

Here is a copy of the Nero info tools BD playback analysis:

Notice that the only defect found on my system was the ATI HD 2600 XT. Of course this card was specifically made for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD computer playback. For some reason Nero is also recommending an upgrade to my BD-ROM player.

So I downloaded the WinDVD advisor for comparision:

The WinDVD advisor doesn't find anything that might prevent playback on my system. It specifically OKs both my Video Card and Display, finding it HDCP compliant (my display is a Toshiba REGZA TV connected by HDMI thru an adapter to the video card DVI connector.)

I decided to also download Cyberlink's advisor. Here is where things get interesting:

Cyberlink finds a different set of concerns. It thinks the Video Card is fine but doesn't like the driver (remember Nero said the exact opposite.) The link to the Cyberlink site recommends Catalyst 6.7 which isn't even available for Vista -- only for XP (The oldest version for Vista is 7.1.) My memory of running the Cyberlink advisor on XP was that the system passed everything except having a version of PowerDVD installed. When I get a chance I will double-check that to make sure.

So the big question is -- does Nero Showtime really support the ATI HD 2600 XT for Blu-Ray playback? Is anyone using that card?

Please Help. Blu-ray Movie Playback Not Working!

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 26 Nov 2007 18:45:23 GMT

I bought the Pioneer Blu-ray BDC-2202 player. It works fine for playing movies through WinDVD, but it just outputs as stereo. There are some post on this site indicating that Nero 8 will play BluRay movies with the plugin. So I thought I'd get Nero for playing the movies in surround sound.

After buying both the retail Nero 8 Ultra edition and the Blu-ray\HD-DVD plugin I have not been able to get blu-ray movies to play at all. Evertime I try to play a blu-ray movie with Showtime 4 I get a message warning me about "unexpected results" with HD video (so at least the software seems to know what the disk is.) When I hit okay I get this message "Internal error. Cannot build graph. The application may be installed incorrectly."

I have done clean reinstalls of the app several times. My software is fully updated to the latest version. My plugin is registered. Nero reports that my software is ready to play blu-ray movies. I have tried with and without Hardware acceleration. I have tried with and without InCD. I can play DVDs. I can play HD video from files in many formats including MPEG2/4 and VC-1. I can even play protected WMVs and DVR-MS files.

I have tried three different Blu-ray movies -- "Casino Royale," "Donnie Brasco," and "Die Hard." Nothing works. Again, they all work fine with WinDVD.

I am runinng XP-MCE with a ATI HD 2600 XT video card, an AMD X2 3800+ processor, and 1 GB RAM. I feel like I've blown a hundred bucks for nothing. Is anyone out there actually playing blu-ray commercial movies with this software? Can anyone help me figure out what I'm doing wrong?

New and need help with nero8 ultra and blu-ray

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 18 Nov 2007 10:02:23 GMT

Any help is very kind, I have the nero 8 ultra and i thouht it came with the abilty to play blu-ray , i cant find a way , do i need something else?

Thx Rob

Dell Whitepaper on Blu-Ray Content Protection

MyNeroUserWithNickname@nero.com () — 12 Nov 2007 02:16:44 GMT

This paper (PDF format) describes the various Blu-Ray protection mechanisms, including AACS, ROMmark and BD+:

http://www.dell.com/downloads/global/vectors/brcp.pdf

For those interested in a high-level overview of these technologies, this is a pretty good introduction